Alinea Analytics: Wuchang: Fallen Feathers – New $100M+ Hit from China?
The company analyzes the project’s metrics shortly before launch.
About 60% of players who wishlisted Wuchang: Fallen Feathers have also played Black Myth: Wukong. According to Alinea Analytics, Black Myth: Wukong has sold over 15 million copies on Steam, 6 million on PlayStation, and more than 4 million on other platforms (mainly WeGame). Interestingly, over 40% of Black Myth: Wukong’s audience played for more than 50 hours, which is a very high engagement rate.
Why is this important? Wuchang: Fallen Feathers is targeting the same audience.
Overall, the Souls-like genre has grown significantly in recent years. Before Elden Ring’s release, the genre generated up to $50 million per month; after its release, monthly revenue consistently exceeded $100 million, with spikes up to nearly $600 million thanks to the launch of Black Myth: Wukong.
The genre’s MAU (monthly active users) exceeds 30 million.
On Steam, there have been 30 single-player games that have earned more than $10 million in gross revenue. Of these, 27 are paid, 2 are free, and 1 is a paid DLC. Nineteen reached this milestone in the first month after release.
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Wuchang: Fallen Feathers Status Two Months Before Release
$3.4M is the median pre-order revenue. Wuchang: Fallen Feathers has already reached $2M.
In terms of pre-order revenue growth, Wuchang: Fallen Feathers is outperforming similar projects.
❗️I disagree with the benchmarks against Assassin's Creed: Shadows, Ghost of Tsushima, or Metaphor: ReFantazio. Don’t think they represent the audience.
53,000 followers is the median. Wuchang: Fallen Feathers already has 123,000.
Wuchang: Fallen Feathers is ahead of other comparable projects by this metric. Only 10 projects in history have launched with more than 200,000 followers—Wuchang: Fallen Feathers has every chance to join this category.
The median wishlist top position is 19. Wuchang: Fallen Feathers is currently at position 49.
The median price is $49.99. The project will launch at the same price point.
Alinea Analytics believes the project could earn more than $30 million gross in its first month on Steam alone. In the first year, this figure could reach $60 million.
A large number of sales could also occur on PlayStation. It’s realistic for the project to sell over 500,000 copies on the platform in its first month. As with many other cases, the game will be available on Xbox Game Pass from launch.
Wuchang: Fallen Feathers is generating significant interest among PlayStation players in China. The game’s pre-orders are outpacing Death Stranding 2: On the Beach, for which China was the second-largest market for the first installment.
According to Alinea Analytics, the game’s development budget is around $30 million.