AppMagic: Lessons of 2023 for casual games
A deep look at the 5 casual genres in 2023 with a calculation of a success rate.
The analytical platform studied genres based on their performance in Tier-1 Western markets (USA, UK, Australia, Canada, France, Germany). Projects were considered successful if they earned over $50,000 per month in these markets (after deducting commissions and taxes). The data table is available via the link.
AppMagic highlighted 5 genres for detailed study: Merge-2 and Merge-3 with a meta; Match 3D; Match-3 with a meta; and Idle Tycoon.
Merge-2 with a meta
In 2023, 101 projects were released in this genre. None of them reached the $50,000 revenue mark per month or more on the selected markets. 0% Success Rate.
However, the genre itself grew by 73% compared to the previous year, fueled by existing projects. My Hamster Story started earning in Asia, but it's not considered in this study.
AppMagic categorizes projects within the genre into those based on quests (like Merge Mansion) and those based on orders (like Travel Town). The first category isn't doing well; only two projects were released in 2023, and Merge Mansion downloads dropped by 25%.
However, this didn't prevent Merge Mansion from leading the revenue chart by a large margin. The game earned $88.8 million in 2023. The closest follower, Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story, earned $43.9 million.
Despite no successful releases in 2023, the top 10 revenue-wise saw significant changes. Three new projects released in 2022 entered it. It's possible that projects in this genre require more time to demonstrate significant results.
Match 3D
65 games in this genre were released in 2023. 5 projects were marked as successful, with a success rate of 8%.
Immediately, 4 projects released in 2023 earned over $1 million in December 2023. And Triple Match 3D crossed the $10 million mark.
Despite the niche's growth, AppMagic fears that the window of opportunity may soon close. Standing out among competitors may help by releasing games with more complex goals.
Idle Tycoon
412 games were released in 2023; 3 of them were successful. Success Rate - 0.7%.
Isekai: Slow Life earned 25% of the genre's total revenue in December 2023.
Frozen City reached its revenue peak in January 2023 and peak downloads in March. After that, the project declined, presumably because developers switched to more efficiently monetized Whiteout Survival.
The genre, overall, is very competitive. Besides constant game improvements, attention to LiveOps and monetization is required.
Match-3 with a meta
162 projects were released in 2023. 4 successful projects (6 if counting Asian markets). Success Rate - 2.5%.
Contrary to the market's general state, Match-3 with a meta grew in revenue in 2023, largely thanks to Royal Match and Gardenscapes.
Chrome Valley Customs is the only project in the genre that managed to enter the top 10 revenue-wise. Interestingly, another similar project - Forza Customs - Restore Cars - is attempting to target a male audience with Match-3, a genre historically considered female-oriented.
Merge-3 with a meta
41 projects were released in 2023; 3 of them were successful. Success Rate - 7.3%.
AppMagic notes that the genre has a very high entry barrier - expensive and complex in development.
None of the successful projects in the genre released in 2023 came close financially to EverMerge and Merge Dragons.