MIDiA Research: The gaming market will never return to double-digit growth rates (2025-2031 forecast)
In case there won't be breakthroughs, we're getting to the point of stability.
The company's market assessment includes sales of games, gaming hardware, and in-game items. Game revenue is calculated considering commissions, taxes, and retail markups. Sales of phones, tablets, TVs, and PCs are not included. Accessory sales are also not considered. Foreign currency was converted to dollars at the average exchange rate for the reporting period. Data up to Q4'24 is historical, after that - forecast.
Overall market condition
The gaming market will reach $236.9 billion by 2031. In 2025 it will be 4.6% more than in 2024. However, adjusted for global inflation of 4.2%, the gaming market effectively remains on a plateau.
Game revenue in 2025 will reach $203.2 billion. A big bet is placed on Grand Theft Auto 6, the launch lineup of Nintendo Switch 2, and successful launches of projects like Monster Hunter Wilds and Assassin's Creed Shadows.
The release of Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025 should return the gaming hardware market to growth after a 19.9% decline in 2024. Growth of 8.4% is expected.
The gaming subscription segment grew by 16% to $11.8 billion in 2024, largely due to the appearance of Call of Duty in Game Pass. Growth is expected to continue in 2025, with the segment reaching $13.1 billion.
The company estimated the gaming advertising market at $23 billion in 2025.
❗️My subjective opinion is that the gaming advertising market is larger than estimated by MiDiA.
In 2025, 68% of all game revenue will come from in-game purchases.
2024 Benchmarks
ARPPU of a console user - $81.68.
ARPPU of a premium PC game buyer - $55.47.
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The total number of players worldwide is estimated at 3.16 billion. Of these, 2.8 billion are mobile device players. In 2025, the number of players will grow to 3.27 billion.
The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 53% of the entire gaming audience in 2024.
Company analysts note that 45% of the console audience makes in-game purchases. On PC, it's 36%, and on mobile devices - 31%.
Forecast for 2031
The market volume is expected to reach $280.1 billion by 2031.
Game revenue by 2031 will be $237 billion.
Revenue from the gaming console segment will be $24.6 billion by 2031.
MIDiA Research analysts predict that gaming subscriptions will account for $18.5 billion by 2031. They note that most of the growth will be due to price increases rather than audience growth.
By 2031, the share of in-game purchases in the overall structure of game revenue will be 67%.
By 2031, the gaming advertising market will reach $27.7 billion, according to the company's estimates.
By 2031, the number of players worldwide will reach 4.02 billion.